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Global financial markets on April 22, 2025, are reeling from intensified concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence following US President Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The US Dollar continues its slide, hitting multi-year lows, as trade war fears escalate with China’s firm stance against Trump’s tariffs. Safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen surge, while the Australian Dollar gains on USD weakness. With key PMI data and Fed speeches looming, investors brace for volatility amid a backdrop of global recession risks.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6420, extending gains as the USD weakens.
Key Drivers: Trump’s criticism of Powell and threats to oust him raise doubts about Fed independence, battering the USD. China’s resistance to Trump’s tariffs (US at 125%, China at 84%) adds market uncertainty, but optimism for a trade deal within weeks supports risk sentiment. The AUD benefits as a proxy for China’s economy, though RBA’s dovish stance (two rate cuts expected by November) caps upside.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6408 (four-month high); support at 0.6292 (50-day EMA). RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum.
Current Level: USD/JPY drops below 140.00, a level not seen since September 2024.
Market Dynamics: Safe-haven demand surges amid trade war fears and recession concerns. BoJ rate-hike bets, fueled by March’s accelerated core CPI, contrast with Fed’s expected 25 bps cut in June, boosting JPY. Trump’s tariff uncertainties and Fed independence concerns further weaken USD.
Technical View: Support at 139.55 (2024 low); resistance at 141.60. Oversold RSI suggests potential consolidation
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) hovers around $3,490, slightly below its all-time high of $3,500.
Supporting Factors: Safe-haven flows intensify due to US-China trade tensions and Fed independence doubts. A weaker USD, with the DXY near a three-year low of 98.30, supports gold. Overbought RSI (above 70) prompts caution, but geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and Fed rate-cut bets (three cuts in 2025) maintain bullish bias.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,423; resistance at $3,500. A break below $3,400 could trigger technical selling.
Current Level: EUR/JPY weakens to near 161.65, down 0.33%, as JPY gains traction.
Influencing Factors: Safe-haven JPY benefits from Trump’s tariff policies and Fed criticism. BoJ’s hawkish signals, with Governor Kazuo Ueda eyeing rate hikes, contrast with ECB’s dovish 2.25% rate cut, pressuring EUR/JPY. Eurozone PMI data tomorrow could influence EUR strength.
Technical View: Support at 161.00; resistance at 162.50. RSI below 50 indicates bearish momentum.
Current Level: WTI crude oil trades around $62.80, up 0.30%, but below $63.00.
Key Influences: Easing Iran-US nuclear deal tensions reduce supply concerns, capping gains. Trade war fears dent demand expectations, but a weaker USD and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risks provide support. US crude stockpiles rose by 515,000 barrels last week, adding pressure.
Outlook: Resistance at $63.00; support at $62.00. PMI data tomorrow could sway demand outlook.
On April 22, 2025, markets are dominated by a collapsing US Dollar, driven by Trump’s attacks on Fed independence and escalating US-China trade tensions. The AUD/USD rises, while safe-haven JPY and gold surge, with gold nearing $3,500. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY face pressure from JPY strength, and WTI oil struggles amid mixed signals. Tomorrow’s Eurozone and US PMI data, alongside FOMC member speeches, could provide clarity on global economic health and Fed policy, with Trump’s tariff moves remaining a critical wildcard.
Stay tuned for further updates.
