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Daily Global Market Update – 15th April, 2025

Continued Trade Tensions Steer Markets: April 15, 2025

Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 15, 2025, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors spark a cautious risk-on sentiment, while escalating US-China trade tensions—marked by China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs against the US’s 145% duties—fuel recession fears. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US PPI data, UK jobs figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow for directional cues, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen holding firm amid uncertainty. The Pound and Australian Dollar are capitalizing on a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while oil prices grapple with mixed demand signals.

GBP/USD Hits Six-Month High

  • Current Level: GBP/USD surges past 1.3200, reaching its highest point since October 2024, marking six consecutive days of gains.
  • Driving Factors: A weakening US Dollar, pressured by US-China trade war fallout and stagflation concerns, bolsters the Pound. Divergent expectations—reduced odds of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut versus anticipated Fed easing (90 basis points by year-end)—support the pair.
  • What to Watch: UK jobs data today could reinforce GBP strength if strong, with resistance at 1.3250 in focus.

AUD/USD Rides Tariff Relief Wave

  • Current Level: AUD/USD extends its rally for a fifth day, trading near 0.6350, buoyed by improved global risk appetite.
  • Key Drivers: Trump’s exemptions on tech products like smartphones and semiconductors, many sourced from China, ease pressure on Australia’s top trading partner. RBA minutes highlight uncertainty on rate moves, keeping markets cautious.
  • Technical Outlook: Support at 0.6300 holds, with upside potential toward 0.6408 if risk sentiment persists.

EUR/USD Stabilizes Amid Uncertainty

  • Current Level: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1350, caught between a stabilizing US Dollar and trade war jitters.
  • Influencing Factors: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s remarks on persistent inflation challenges temper rate-cut hopes. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, capping euro gains. US-China tariff escalation adds economic concerns.
  • Key Levels: Support at 1.1300; resistance at 1.1400. US PPI data today could drive volatility.

Japanese Yen Trims Losses

  • Current Level: USD/JPY trades above 143.00, with the Yen recovering some ground after early losses.
  • Market Dynamics: Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and rising Japanese inflation support the Yen, offsetting reduced safe-haven demand from an upbeat market mood. A dovish Fed outlook contrasts with potential BoJ tightening, capping USD/JPY gains.
  • Levels to Watch: Support at 142.50; resistance at 144.00. Trade-related headlines remain critical.

Gold Shines as Safe-Haven Demand Persists

  • Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $3,200, close to its all-time high, after a modest dip yesterday.
  • Supporting Factors: Intensifying US-China trade tensions drive safe-haven flows. Fed rate-cut bets weaken the USD, boosting gold. Trump’s tariff relief on tech and auto sectors slightly curbs upside momentum.
  • Technical View: Support at $3,167 is pivotal, with bulls targeting a retest of $3,246.

WTI Oil Steadies on Mixed Signals

  • Current Level: WTI crude oil stabilizes around $61.10, supported by tariff relief hopes.
  • Key Influences: Trump’s hints at auto sector exemptions and prior tech tariff relief lift sentiment. China’s 5% year-over-year surge in March oil imports supports prices. However, OPEC+’s lowered demand forecasts for 2025 (1.3 million bpd) and 2026 (1.28 million bpd) limit gains.
  • Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Geopolitical developments could spur volatility.

Broader Market Context

Markets are balancing optimism from US tariff exemptions against fears of a deepening US-China trade war. GBP/USD and AUD/USD thrive on USD weakness, while gold and the Yen draw safe-haven interest. EUR/USD remains range-bound, awaiting ECB cues, and WTI oil navigates conflicting signals. Today’s US PPI and UK jobs data, alongside Powell’s speech tomorrow, could shape near-term trends. Investors stay vigilant as trade policy uncertainty dominates.

Stay tuned for further updates as these dynamics evolve.

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